Home > Uncategorized > Richard Charnin – 2010 Midterms Analysis: House Generic, Senate RV/LV Polls, Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

Richard Charnin – 2010 Midterms Analysis: House Generic, Senate RV/LV Polls, Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

From Richard Charnin:

2010 Midterms Analysis: House Generic, Senate RV/LV Polls, Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

Nov. 16, 2010

The 2010 midterms are history. The typical reaction of the pundits is to promote the conventional wisdom that it was a GOP blowout of epic proportions – even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

This analysis utilizes final likely and registered state and national pre-election polls along with preliminary and final exit polls. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2000, LV polls have closely matched the recorded vote while RV polls closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls.

It is standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force the Final to match the recorded vote. Obama’s recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%. The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010.

The pundits always assume that the Final NEP returning voter mix is legitimate even though it is always forced to match the recorded vote. As usual, their implicit assumption is that election fraud was not a factor. But it always is.

In 2008 the National Election Pool, a consortium of six mainstream media giants which sponsors the exit polls, decided not to release unadjusted (or preliminary) state and national exit poll data. And they won’t in 2010, either. They don’t want anyone to see the adjustments they had to make  to the return voter mix and/or the vote shares in order to match the recorded vote.

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